For the last several years, interest rates have been low and heading lower. Thirty-year mortgage rates have reached a ridiculous low of less than 3%! So, this begs the question, “Can interest rates stay this low forever?” Common sense would tell us, no. For the simple reason nothing stays stagnant for too long, it stands to reason interest rates will be making a move soon.
Also, at this point in time, the middle of 2013, interest rates can’t really go any lower. A case in point is my six-month adjustable thirty-year mortgage is now holding at a rate of 2.875%. This mortgage rate is tied to the T-bond and in my mortgage contract it states that my interest rate will be set at 2.75% above the rate of this T-bond. This means the T-bond is trading at 0.125%. This is the difference between 2.875% and 2.75%. So, for my mortgage’s interest rates move lower, the T-bond would have to be 0%. In short, this would represent a growth in the Treasury bond of zero and would make the T-bond totally worthless of investing in!
Though nobody can predict for sure what’s going to happen next, we know interest rates can’t go much lower and we also know the bond market is now selling off. When bonds sell off, interest rates go higher. This is not a market philosophy, it is an inexorable fact. Therefore, it’s only reasonable to assume interest rates are finally headed up.